Gather available information to help you estimate or illustrate the financial and social costs of the loss you would experience if the hazard occurs. ![]() Designate events that are likely to occur less frequently than once in 20 years as low probability. Categorize events that are likely to occur just once in 5 to 20 years as medium probability. If a hazard is likely to occur within 5 years, designate it as a high probability. Example rule set for categorizing probability: Develop a simple rule set for the three categories to ensure that you apply probability consistently. For instance, you can explore past and current conditions or check applied forecasts.īased on what you find, estimate the probability a hazard will occur as low, medium, or high. Check if climate change or other stressors are likely to increase the frequency or severity of the hazard over time.ĭigital tools and data available through this site can help you find the answers to these questions.Collect information on how frequently the hazard has occurred in your region in the past.Estimate the probability of a hazardįor the hazards that could impact your most vulnerable assets: To characterize risk, you'll rate these two parameters for each of your asset-hazard pairs. When referring to risk from weather and climate-related hazards, higher risk reflects either a higher chance of a hazard occurring or a higher cost (financial or otherwise) if the hazard occurs. Would the hazard cause a major disruption for a large number of people for an extended period? Would it require large amounts of money and time to regain the previous level of function? The second element is the magnitude of consequences from the event.How likely is it that the hazard will happen in your location? How frequently has it occurred in the past, and is that frequency increasing due to climate change? The first element of risk is the probability of a hazard occurring. ![]() Risk is a compound concept that describes the chance of sustaining a substantial loss. Understanding Riskįor asset-hazard pairs with high or medium vulnerability, you'll also want to characterize the risk they represent. Add two columns to your list of asset-hazard pairs to record your input.īased on your descriptions, add a third column and categorize the vulnerability of each asset-hazard pair as low, medium, or high. To assess vulnerability, you'll describe the potential impact and adaptive capacity for each of your asset-hazard pairs. Raising buildings above expected flood levels is one example of adaptive capacity, which reduces vulnerability. These two homes in a flood-prone area are both exposed, yet the one on the right is obviously more likely to be damaged if a major flood occurs. For each asset-hazard pair, consider the ability of the asset to avoid damage or adapt to its hazard. Does the asset have characteristics that enable it to deal with or adjust to the hazard?Īdaptive capacity-the ability to adjust to new situations-reduces the potential impact of a sensitive asset. For example, assets such as parking lots are generally not sensitive to severe weather.Įven if an asset is sensitive to a hazard, it is not necessarily vulnerable. If the potential impact from a hazard is minimal, the asset is not sensitive.For example, a furniture store is sensitive to flooding. If an asset could sustain a negative impact from a hazard, it is sensitive to that hazard.Is the hazard capable of damaging the asset? To determine if an asset is vulnerable, first consider its sensitivity to the hazards it is exposed to. Knowing the elements of each concept can help you identify specific approaches to building resilience. Be assured that understanding the terms will become more useful as you move forward. Vulnerability is the predisposition or tendency of an asset to be adversely affected by hazards.Īs you begin this step, some of the phrases we use for new concepts may feel like unimportant jargon. Another concept- vulnerability-will help you understand which ones are most and least likely to be harmed. Looking over your list of asset-hazard pairs, you may notice that all assets on the list are not equally likely to be damaged. ![]() Assess Vulnerability & Risk Understanding Vulnerability
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